Description

This analysis provides a forecast of MATIC prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-02-02 2.575815e-01 0.303235 0.351662 0.406568 0.466808 0.530618 0.603050
2025-02-09 1.856023e-01 0.245788 0.314260 0.396742 0.492260 0.598323 0.723929
2025-02-16 1.415450e-01 0.210348 0.293956 0.400203 0.528909 0.677281 0.858763
2025-02-23 1.056346e-01 0.177444 0.270781 0.395635 0.553230 0.740964 0.976963
2025-03-02 7.399316e-02 0.143250 0.240237 0.377077 0.556976 0.778085 1.063157
2025-03-09 5.709325e-02 0.126017 0.229095 0.381106 0.587507 0.847347 1.188748
2025-03-16 4.100068e-02 0.105879 0.210458 0.372188 0.599218 0.891975 1.283810
2025-03-23 3.393152e-02 0.099232 0.210623 0.388845 0.644845 0.980338 1.434902
2025-03-30 2.532035e-02 0.087105 0.200184 0.388525 0.666272 1.036916 1.545930
2025-04-06 1.889586e-02 0.077215 0.191744 0.389905 0.689270 1.095304 1.659606
2025-04-13 1.477171e-02 0.071019 0.188641 0.398832 0.722743 1.167874 1.792419
2025-04-20 1.183728e-02 0.066658 0.188121 0.411436 0.761492 1.247917 1.935846
2025-04-27 9.331477e-03 0.062555 0.187791 0.424671 0.802222 1.332477 2.088088
2025-05-04 6.235039e-03 0.054586 0.178496 0.422011 0.818713 1.383596 2.196380
2025-05-11 4.486091e-03 0.050107 0.175652 0.429977 0.851324 1.457606 2.336312
2025-05-18 2.754576e-03 0.043740 0.167478 0.427700 0.867639 1.508557 2.445402
2025-05-25 1.189661e-03 0.034886 0.151470 0.409572 0.857808 1.521416 2.502101
2025-06-01 6.598353e-04 0.031508 0.148156 0.414645 0.884882 1.587627 2.632718
2025-06-08 2.104852e-04 0.026098 0.138085 0.405685 0.888456 1.619266 2.715427
2025-06-15 1.245353e-04 0.025526 0.141531 0.423579 0.936684 1.717139 2.891471
2025-06-22 2.407852e-05 0.022288 0.136281 0.423400 0.954523 1.770072 3.004866
2025-06-29 7.236835e-07 0.019636 0.132097 0.424952 0.975078 1.827112 3.124405
2025-07-06 NaN 0.018247 0.131742 0.434449 1.009271 1.904915 3.273918